A Pandemic May End Our Civilisation

While very serious, the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic virus that is currently sweeping across our planet will not end our civilisation. The vast majority of people infected will make full recoveries, and a vaccine will be developed . The economic damage from the lock-down of societies as governments attempt to stop the spread will take many years to recover from, but that recovery will happen. Communities will be stretched and challenged, but order will remain and normal life will eventually resume.

We have been lucky this time, but there is quite a strong possibility that a virus will emerge one day that will have a death rate so high that it will be a severe threat to our civilisation, and even the very survival of our species. Health care services will collapse, governments will cease to function, food supply chains will break, and utilities such as electricity and water will fail as those needed to run power and pumping stations succumb to the illness.

We must consider the current COVID-19 pandemic as a wake-up call and make sure we learn as much as we can from it on how to prevent viruses spreading, and how we can speed up the development of vaccines, in preparation for the time that we encounter something far more deadly.

All nations of our planet should be working together on the following:

Create a Parallel Rapid Response Pandemic Healthcare System

Implementation time: five years

Health services need to be ready to immediately react to the start of a potential pandemic event. Currently this would be hard to do as hospitals around the world are set up to cope with normal levels of healthcare issues. A parallel healthcare system needs to be on standby, one that is globally coordinated. This must include the ability to rapidly construct temporary hospitals in designated locations.

A modular hospital design (wards and private rooms section). Such pre-designed hospitals could be prefabricated at a factory and rapidly constructed anywhere.

Such a system could have purpose-built isolation wards in place within just a few days. If this is combined with social distancing and travel restriction measures then we would have a much better chance of containing even the most virulent diseases until a vaccine is developed.

Mandatory Pandemic Education

Implementation time: starting within a year

All nations need to properly educate their populations on how to act to help prevent and minimise the effects of a pandemic. Mandatory classes, held perhaps once year in all schools and regular public information broadcasts should be a requirement and cover everything from personal hygiene to self-isolation to maintaining mental health during such periods. Everyone should be aware how important it is to follow government advice. It should also be mandatory for people to keep a few weeks supply of certain items at all times, just in case.

Self-Sustaining Underground Sanctuaries

Implementation time: 50 years

Large underground sanctuaries capable of housing many millions of people should be constructed around the world. These sanctuaries must be self-sustaining and capable of remaining sealed off from the outside world for many years if necessary. They should be designed not only for survival but to allow scientific research and development of new technologies to continue so that our civilisation can maintain and advance its capabilities. That would be essential if those in the sanctuaries are to one day return to the outside and repopulate the surface.

Underground sanctuaries would be for very long term use and should be designed to maintain both the mental and physical health of those that live there

Such underground sanctuaries should be spacious and comfortable, and they should be designed to for to maintain the psychological as well as physical health of the occupants. Sanctuaries such as these would be effective refuges against other threats too. Read this article: 'Surviving the Next Doomsday Asteroid Impact' for a more detailed description of the ideal underground sanctuaries.

Self-Sustaining Colonies Away From Earth

Implementation time: first colony within a century

Ultimately we need to have self-sustaining human colonies away from Earth. These should be in a variety of locations from orbital habitats around Earth and other bodies in the Solar-System, to habitats on the Moon, Mars, and on the icy moons of Jupiter  such as Callisto. Saturn's moon Titan, with its thick atmosphere, and despite its frigid conditions, would provide an excellent location for a permanent colony (see my article: 'Human Colony on Titan').

Creating self-sustaining colonies away from Earth, wherever they are, is an immense challenge, but not an insurmountable one. Very large orbital habitats may well be the easiest with which to provide self-sustainability. If a large enough one was built and it was rotating to provide a simulated gravity similar to Earth on its inner surface, then a comfortable habitat with an Earth-like environment would be possible, with enough surface area for large-scale agricultural activity.

A massive space habitat many kilometres in diameter. This design is based on a Bernal sphere, which was first proposed as far back as 1929 by John Desmond Bernal, an Irish scientist. The habitat rotates along its axis to provide simulated gravity for the inhabitants that live on its inner surface.

The raw materials to build such enormous habitats are available in abundance in the asteroid belt, so the essential first step is to build up asteroid mining expertise.

If all of the above steps were taken our species and civilisation would be able to survive even the most extreme pandemics. Implementation should begin as soon as the current Covid-19 pandemic is under control.

Surviving the Next Doomsday Asteroid Impact

One day, as has happened many times before, a large asteroid thousands of metres in diameter will hit our planet.

The result of the impact will rain hot debris across the entire Earth, heating the atmosphere to an oven-like temperature and shrouding it in dust clouds. Fires will burn for years adding billions of tonnes of soot to the atmosphere, and then the global temperature will fall dramatically. Photosynthesis will grind to a halt. Almost all species of plants and animals will perish. The only survivors will be those lifeforms that are able to eat the remains of long dead life, such a cockroaches and deep sea creatures.

The collision of a large asteroid thousands of metres in diameter with our planet will almost certainly result in the extinction of most lifeforms. It is unlikely that humans would survive.

If such an impact happened now humans would not survive. The extinction of our species would be certain. Essentially, life on Earth would be reset to the point just after the last massive impact event 66 million years ago (the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction event that caused of the extinction of the dinosaurs).

By the next century we are likely to have permanently inhabited colonies on the Moon, Mars and possibly even beyond, but there will be a few hundred inhabitants at best. And most crucially those colonies will not be self-sufficient. If Earth is rendered uninhabitable and our civilisation destroyed then those colonies will die soon after. It will be a couple of centuries until self-sufficient colonies with tens of thousands (preferably millions) of people exist away from our planet. Until then we will need sanctuaries on Earth where a significant human population can survive should a massive asteroid impact occur. And by 'significant' I mean several million people at least.

The cost of building such underground sanctuaries would be extreme, and it would take decades or longer before they were ready for habitation. Hundreds of billions of dollars would be needed each year, and a workforce of millions. But it is actually affordable and achievable, if only the world's governments could be less paranoid and divert some of their defence spending to the project. The total spending each year by NATO members (29 European and North American countries) is more than one trillion dollars. If just a quarter of that budget could be redirected then the underground sanctuaries for North America and Europe could begin construction. If the likes of Russia, China, Japan and their neighbours did the same then sanctuaries in their region of the world could begin construction, too.

After a century of construction and expansion, the main chamber of a vast underground sanctuary, deep beneath mountains in Europe, is home to a thriving city of a million people. Powered by geothermal energy, the sanctuary is a self-sufficient haven for humans, one of several spread around the Earth. Even the impact of a large asteroid, such as the one that resulted in the extinction of the dinosaurs and many other species, would not lead to human extinction if such facilities exist.

Each sanctuary would need to be hundreds of metres underground, with locations beneath mountains the most preferable. As well as hundreds of kilometres of tunnels and smaller chambers there would need to be huge areas for agriculture, and even larger caverns to create the feeling of space and distance we have evolved to need, if only to maintain the sanity of individuals. Power could be generated using geothermal technology.  Energy generation using geothermal power stations currently provides 30 percent of the electricity requirements of Iceland, with the Philippines not far behind that. It is a relatively clean and renewable source of energy and would be ideal for subterranean habitats. New power generation technology, such as nuclear fusion, will hopefully be perfected over the next decades, which could provide almost unlimited power capabilities.

One of the many farming chambers that surrounds the main city of each of the underground sanctuaries. Agricultural facilities such as this, powered by geothermal energy, or even fusion energy, provide food for millions for thousands of years in the event of a catastrophic incident up on the Earth's surface.

Once created the sanctuaries would need to be permanently occupied to a high capacity: at least 50 percent. This is necessary to ensure that the sanctuaries are fully functional and under constant maintenance. They should be regularly assessed to identify areas of improvement. They would need to be totally self-sufficient if the need for them arises. There would hopefully be many months, if not years, of notice before a large impact would occur, giving plenty of time for people to migrate into the sanctuaries.

There are ethical and moral issues with regards to who would be selected to migrate into the sanctuaries should an extinction level impact be confirmed. The choice of certain sections of the population is obvious: there needs to be specialists in all areas of science and technology (engineering, medical, computing, utilities, agriculture etc) and also educators; it will be essential that education levels are maintained for the generations that will live in the sanctuaries, so schools and universities would be required.  The majority of inhabitants, however, will be ordinary citizens with ordinary levels of education and skills. Whatever method is used to choose which of those individuals and families are chosen - a lottery, or genetics (to maintain the diversity of the gene pool) - there would be objections, protests and even wars fought no matter who is chosen (there would be nations of the world without any access to sanctuaries of their own). Great care would need to be taken to ensure that the security of the sanctuaries is maintained and the chance of sabotage is kept to a minimum.

The selection of who is to migrate to the sanctuaries, and how to prevent attacks on them as they travel there, will perhaps be a more troubled process than the construction of the actual sanctuaries themselves.

Of course, it would be best if a cataclysmic asteroid collision was prevented altogether. There are numerous proposals to deflect or destroy asteroids that are identified to be on an eventual collision course with Earth. None of them has yet been tried, and all of them required many years, or even decades, of warning. Research into such methods should be intensified and an effective asteroid defence system should be implemented as soon as possible. The underground sanctuaries would allow a small percentage of our human population to survive the aftermath, but they should be considered a last resort. The need for then should ideally never arise.

Developing the ability to deflect or destroy asteroids on a collision course with Earth is essential to prevent the extinction of our species. A joint NASA and ESA mission in 2020-2021 will perform the first test of such technology.

If we construct several underground sanctuaries around the world, and deploy a system capable of destroying or deflecting asteroids, we stand an excellent chance of surviving as a species even if an object many tens of kilometres wide collides with our planet, and of eventually repopulating the surface once its ecosystem has recovered.

But, before the creation of the underground sanctuaries can happen we need to cultivate a will to change our thinking and work together for the greater good and the very preservation of our species and the wider ecosystem on which we depend. If we fail to do so we will fail all of humanity, and our extinction will be assured.

Living Inside Asteroids

For humans to live long-term in space we would need a healthy environment. This would mean somewhere spacious, with plenty of the comforts we find on Earth. And most importantly, we would need gravity, or at least a simulation of it.

Large space stations could be built with all of the above. With a large enough diameter they could be spun at less than two revolutions per minute, which would eliminate the uncomfortable symptoms of the Coriolis effect that would be experienced at the higher revolutions of a small rotating space station. Due to the huge amounts of material needed for construction of such stations, and the immense cost of launching it from Earth, the materials to construct the space stations would realistically have to be mined from asteroids.

A large diameter space station under construction in the Asteroid Belt. A single large asteroid will provide more than enough material for the construction of the station. Concept by Deep Space Industries.

Asteroid mining will not only provide the huge amount of construction material necessary for space habitats. If the asteroids are mined in a certain way, making large cylindrical chambers through the asteroid's centre of rotation, we could then convert the chambers into living spaces. Once mining is concluded the rotation of the asteroid could be altered until a high-enough centrifugal force provides enough artificial gravity comfortable for humans on the chambers' outer walls.

Such chambers, several kilometres in diameter, could well provide what may become the safest and most comfortable human living spaces away from the Earth.

Of course, the idea of hollowing out space inside an asteroid is not a new one.

This image was created in the 1960s by Roy Scarfo when the exploration and colonisation of the asteroid belt was being researched by Dandridge M Cole.

In the 1960s Dandridge M Cole, an aerospace engineer and futurist, was one of the first to propose hollowing out an asteroid and spinning it on its long axis to simulate gravity. Illustrated above, he envisaged a large single void within the asteroid with fields, lakes and villages. Sunlight would be reflected into the interior using mirrors. It would be a spacious and comfortable environment.

It's an impressive concept, but there are numerous problems with it, and not least the idea of a single huge chamber and relatively thin wall. It would make the asteroid habitat vulnerable to complete decompression if the wall was compromised in some way. If the rotation provided one gee of gravity the forces on the wall, especially at the asteroid's equator, would cause it to fly apart as soon as any cracks or flaws developed.

The very green and pleasant interior of Dandridge's asteroid habitat concept

It would be far better to cut several cylindrical voids, and have the outer walls very thick - several kilometres at least, depending on the overall size of the asteroid. Each chamber would be connected to the next, but with the ability to quickly seal off a particular chamber if it was compromised and at risk of decompression, or indeed some other dangerous event. Those living in the effected chamber could easily be evacuated to another chamber, making such asteroid habitats safe and with plenty of redundancy.

Once the chambers have been excavated the asteroid's speed of rotation can be increased slowly, until the right level of simulated gravity is reached. To generate an equivalent of one gee (the same as what we experience on Earth) the rotation speed would be quite substantial, and it would mean that, at the very least, loose boulders and dust would be thrown off the surface of the asteroid. It would also put considerable stress on the outer surface, which would rule out low density asteroids due to the high risk of instability.

A natural habitat for Earth life, many kilometres in diameter, created inside a hollowed out cylindrical chamber within an asteroid. Typically there would be a few such chambers. All would be linked but each could be sealed off should a disaster occur, which would protect the other chambers.

A supporting series of collars around the equatorial region of of the asteroid would negate many of the issues that such a high centripetal force would cause. It would be a huge construction task to build such collars, but no more than the excavation of the chambers themselves. Of course, the excavated material would provide everything required to build the collars, each of which could be many kilometres in width. They would be held in place by deep supports.

Visiting spacecraft would using large docking areas at the poles of the asteroid, situated at each end of the axis of rotation. People and cargo would then be transported through the asteroid along the axis of rotation. Essentially there would be zero gravity in this area. When the destination chamber is reached the visitors and cargo would be delivered to the surface using elevators. People descending in these would experience a steadily increasing sensation of weight as they approached the surface.

A diagram showing how the interior of a rotating asteroid colony could be divided up into separate chambers. This would provide higher levels of safety (colonists could be evacuated to another chamber if their own is compromised), and more structural integrity than a single large chamber.

It's likely that people arriving at the asteroid will have spent many months travelling in zero gravity so acclimatisation areas at the regular points down to the surface should be built to allow people to adapt gently to the full gravity of the facility.

As well as fairly static colonies inside asteroids in the Asteroid Belt, or in the Trojans, asteroids that are on highly elliptical orbits - that head in to the inner Solar-System and then out beyond the orbits of Neptune and Uranus - would make very useful passenger ships. As the asteroid gets close to Earth (and the probable large colonies on the Moon and Mars) passengers who need to travel to the outer Solar-System could rendezvous with it. They could then spend the next couple of years living in comfort in relatively Earth-like conditions as the asteroid's orbit takes them closer to their destination.

Ultimately, such asteroids could become our first interstellar star ships. They would make voyages lasting thousands of years, with a hundred generations or more of humans living out their lives in comfort until the asteroid is captured by the target star system. With the right energy generation technology such as nuclear fusion that could provide light and warmth during the interstellar period of the voyage, humans would have a relatively good chance of reaching their destination.

Converting asteroids into large human habitats, and then into interplanetary and interstellar spacecraft, seems to be a logical and necessary step as humans embark on colonisation beyond Earth, and it is likely to be an essential step towards securing the future of our species.

The vast resources and protection that such objects can provide must be utilised at the earliest opportunity.

Humans on Callisto within 15 Years

Human colonies on the Moon and Mars are almost inevitable, but that is simply because of their proximity to Earth. But the best location for the first human colonies beyond our planet may not be the Moon or Mars. It could well be one of Jupiter's ice moons. The intense radiation in the inner Jovian system is a major problem, but one of the largest outer moons, Callisto, has great potential.

Callisto, the second largest of Jupiter's moons, and the easiest and safest one on which to establish a human colony

As far as human colonisation is concerned Callisto offers much the same resources as the other three Galilean moons, but there is one thing it offers that the others cannot: a low radiation environment. Such an environment, which is still protected by Jupiter's magnetosphere,  means that crewed spacecraft will need minimal radiation shielding, and habitats on the surface of Callisto are possible. On top of that, its old surface indicates that it is geologically stable. And there is also strong evidence of significant amounts of liquid water beneath the surface (which itself contains plenty of water ice).

As well as water ice, the surface is made up of significant amounts of carbon dioxide ice, rock, silicates and hydrocarbon compounds, all of which can be mined to help a colony achieve self-sufficiency (water oxygen, fuel, metals etc.).

Callisto appears to be an almost perfect choice for colonisation, and also as a base to launch the colonisation missions of many of the other outer Solar-System bodies, such as Enceladus, Titan,  Triton, and the trans-Neptune objects beyond.

An aggressive, but achievable, time line for Callisto colonisation is as follows:

• 2019: the Callisto orbiter launched. Construction of crewed spacecraft begins.
• 2020 - 2022: an unmanned supply spacecraft is launched with surface habitats and supplies for the future Callisto colony.

An unmanned Callisto supply spacecraft is prepared for launch in Earth orbit

• 2024: the orbiter arrives and begins detailed visual and radar mapping of the Callisto's entire surface.
• 2025 - 2027: the supply spacecraft arrives and enters orbit around Callisto. Two surface locations are chosen for the first colonies. The equipment for the two surface bases lands at the desired locations. The equipment includes human habitats, power generators, food and food growing bays, drilling machines, and oxygen/fuel creators (to extract hydrogen and oxygen from the surface water ice to create fuel for return journeys, and of course to make oxygen for breathing). The now empty supply spacecraft returns to Earth.
• 2027: the first crewed spacecraft launches with eight occupants.
• 2029: as the empty supply spacecraft arrives back in Earth orbit, the second crewed spacecraft launches, again with eight occupants.
• 2030: an unmanned Europa lander launches from Earth.
• 2031: the first crewed spacecraft arrives in orbit around Callisto. Six of the occupants land on the moon, three at each location, and set up the habitats. The drilling of underground habitats, and mining, begins. The two remaining crew members stay in orbit in the detached orbital station section. The empty crewed spacecraft returns to Earth.

The first colonists explore the crevasses and caves of Callisto

• 2032: The unmanned supply spacecraft leaves Earth orbit and heads back to Callisto.
• 2033: the second crewed spacecraft arrives and docks with the first one in Callisto orbit. Six of the occupants land on the moon and join the earlier colonists. There are now six at each location. The orbital station is enlarged with a new module.  It now has a permanent crew of four. The empty crewed spacecraft returns to Earth.
• 2034: the Europa lander arrives and lands on the moon's surface. The crew orbiting Callisto take control of the Europa mission, using tele-operation to control the surface rover and the penetrator to explore the ocean beneath. They will do this for all future unmanned Jovian missions.
• 2035: the underground habitats on Callisto are now occupied. They consist of large pressurised caves with habitat domes within, and also greenhouses for growing food. Tunneling continues to expand the habitats. The surface habitats are now used solely for science purposes. The first launch from Callisto with two occupants, and using fuel maufactured on Callisto, successfully docks with the orbital station.

Large man-made and pressurised caverns beneath the surface of Callisto would make ideal human habitats

• 2036: the unmanned supply spacecraft arrives. Supplies are sent to the surface colonies and the orbital station, and then the spacecraft heads back to Earth.
• 2037: the third crewed spacecraft with eight occupants leaves Earth and heads for Callisto.
• 2038: the fourth crewed spacecraft launched from Earth.
• 2039: the first baby is born in the Callisto colony.
• 2041 - 2042: the two new crews arrive in Callisto orbit and dock with the orbital station. New modules are added to the orbital station. The now very large station keeps a permanent crew of eight, while the rest head for the two surface colonies. The empty crewed spacecraft return to Earth.

One of the manned spacecraft arrives in the Jovian system and, after a close pass of Jupiter, closes in on Callisto

• 2042: with fuel on Callisto now plentiful regular round trips from the surface to the orbital station begin. Crew rotations are performed, giving all the chance to work on the surface and in orbit.
• 2043: two more children are born in the Callisto colonies.  There are now 27 colonists on the surface.

If the above plan were to be followed there would a sizable and thriving human colony on Callisto within 30 years. As it grows over the following decades humans would have an ideal base from which to launch colonisation missions to other outer Solar-System regions, and from which to conduct science and exploration work, manned and unmanned, from within a much more manageable gravity well.

SpaceX has recently presented its concept for a large and fully reusable interplanetary manned spacecraft. It's a highly impressive proposal, with a long term goal of having 100 or more passengers per trip. It would be an incredibly efficient and fast way of building a colony.

SpaceX's interplanetary spacecraft, which could eventually carry 100 passengers to colonies on Mars and the moon's of Jupiter. The image shows the spacecraft after landing on Enceladus, a moon of Saturn.

Although the initial target planet is Mars, SpaceX has said that the vehicle is suitable for use on the moons of the outer planets, too. With the extreme ambitions of organisations like SpaceX, a colony on Callisto is possible within the lifetimes of many who are reading this.  Let's hope more organisations, and some governments, rise to this challenge.

It is essential for our survival as a species.